Former Vice President Joe Biden Leads President Donald Trump in Polls

Former Vice President Joe Biden, for a lot of different reasons, leads President Donald Trump in the polls. One big one is his support from women voters. When analyzing polls over the past 70 years, Biden wins a record amount of support from women voters for a presidential candidate. Take a look at the most recent live interview polls of registered May and June voters compiled by Nate Cohn of The New York Times.

Biden leads by 59 per cent to 35 per cent among female registered voters, a 25-point margin when the numbers are not rounded. That’s a substantial increase from his 19-point benefit earlier this year, and Hillary Clinton’s 14-point lead had registered voters in the final 2016 preelection poll. Clinton held a 13-point lead with female voters possibly.

We could go much further. Gallup will take its last preelection poll before 2016 and readjust it to match the last margin. I look to Gallup for the closest contrast of apples-to-apples (i.e. pre-election polling to pre-election polling) we can make. The only year coming close to what we’re seeing in the polls right now is 1964. That year, Democrat Lyndon Johnson won by 23 points nationwide nationally and Gallup had him taking 24 points in the women’s vote. Biden’s doing a point better among female voters than Johnson did, even though he’s doing 13 points worse overall. In no other year since 1952, the Democratic nominee has won by more than 15 points among female voters.

How poor he is with men is perhaps what makes Biden more impressive with women. From earlier this year, he saw only a 2-point climb with them and still loses them by 6 points to Trump. That’s about how Clinton did the final pre-election polling in 2016 with them. Among registered voters and likely male voters, Clinton trailed 5 and 7 points respectively. Indeed, Barack Obama in 2012 was the only candidate to win the presidency since 1952 and do just as badly as Biden is doing with male voters right now. Obama lost them by six points, according to Gallup ‘s tally.

Another indicator of how good he is with female voters is the fact that Biden wins the total (10 points) by a substantially wider margin than Obama won by (4 points), given how badly Biden performs with people.

You see, when you equate female and male voters, we might be moving for a new gender gap. Right now the 31-point gap blasts past any in previous pre-election polls. Both 2012 and 2016 reported differences of approximately 20 points. The 1996-2016 average was a gap of about 16 points. It is just about half of what we’ve seen in the polling right now.

For the Democratic Party, a gender gap isn’t necessarily good. Even, for the simple explanation that they make up a marginally higher proportion of voters. You would rather have women by your side than men. Biden’s overall advantage would be about a lesser point if women and men constituted an equal proportion of the electorate. That doesn’t matter right now, but if the polls tighten up it could. For now, all that we can say is if this election has been left to men. It is instead of what it really is, we ‘d be talking about. It is clear Trump lead: a big Biden advantage!

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